“The other side has said they will not move forward with an initiative until they are sure they can win,” said Frank Schubert, a spokesman for ProtectMarriage.com, the leading group behind Proposition 8. “That day is not going to come.” (NYT article about whether to challenge proposition 8 in 2010 or 2012)
The level of denial here is amazing. Perhaps California will maintain proposition 8 for a few years. But I have no doubt that if my children are gay, there will be at most a handful of states that prohibit their marriages in 2036. Perhaps none. Nor do I think this is a judgment driven by optimism–I’m hedging my bets by putting it off until 2036. And we may well have a federal right to marry by that point.
I think the article is definitely worth reading, although none of the factual information is surprising. When proposition 8 first passed, I just assumed it would be overturned as soon as possible, that its passage depended on complacency by its opponents and sheer dumb luck. I can’t imagine how hard it has to be to say “no, we can’t fight this for another two years.”