Today the Connecticut Supreme Court ruled that gay couples have a right to marry, invalidating a state ban on same-sex marriages. This is the type of event that could help Republicans’ electoral prospects by raising the salience of culture-war issues and creating a backlash against activist judges. I’m optimistic that it won’t matter too much:
- Voters seem overwhelmingly focused on economic issues at this point.
- This sort of issue appeals primarily to the social conservative base, raising turnout, but the advantages held by generic Democrats, or Obama in particular, are too large to be overcome by increased turnout on the right. Republicans have to persuade independent voters this year.