Five Thirty Eight

Oh Lord, a new polling website.  They attempt to assign weights to various polls based on reliability, to *mumble* *mumble* regression *mumble*…, and then do 10,000 simulations to derive estimates of the popular vote, electoral vote and probability of each candidate winning.  So it’s either an entirely scientific approach to polling or complete voodoo.  Either way, it takes the fun out of polling, which is aggregating the results and then selectively ignoring the ones that displease you. Did I say fun? I actually hate that horse-race shit, even if I might partake in a moment of weakness.

You might describe my predictive strategy as equal parts prayer and terror.


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