Hindsight Bias

Is the phenomenon where you can’t remember what you used to think once you know the answer. You might also call it “reversion to autism,” since autistic children can’t remember their former beliefs once they know the correct answer. I’m going to engage in some hindsight bias in light of new statistics that say the percentage of Democrats claiming they’ll defect at the end of the primaries in 2008 is way lower than the percentage of Republicans or Democrats claiming they’d defect in 2000. So I’ll ignore the fact that I got a little unnerved by the surveys and highlight the fact that I said they have zero predictive power.


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